Mush!

I may have spoke too soon yesterday. Like the end of Grizzly Man, where the guy decides to stay too-long into the pre-hibernation period and that new loner bear comes around whom he has no previous relationship with - that's the bear who eats his ass. No care to what a good guy he is/was. Chomps without reflection.

Well, maybe not that bad. You bears are sweating some. We're all sweating some. Wake me up when one of us is getting eaten.

We're back to murky, mushy action. Retail is taking body shots, following housing revisions and rising foreclosures (apparently, up to 8% of mortgages are on the stretching rack). Otherwise the market remains as half-full as it is half-empty. If you are picking good stocks to play (long or short) then you are doing alright. If you are expecting huge fireworks, then you are living in the wrong month.

I'm flat on the week, somehow!, but daddy still needs a new pair of snowshoes if you know what I mean. I'm focusing long (though lightly invested) until we can actually break this trend. If action waxes uglier now I will have to hedge at least; but so far I remain patient. If we resume higher and leadership is firm, I'll be happy to increase exposure.

I cut-back the Euro short last night and might be happier now if I had let it all go (it has recovered from last night's sell-off). I was bailed-out nicely this week, but if the dollar is truly weakening again I'm not going to take a second ride against the tide there.

Gold is at a 3-month high. I still favor LIHR, which broke out last week on reasonable volume. This has been a nice pair-trade to my dollar short. If you forced me I would admit the gold trade looks better than the dollar short (but what do I know anyway?).

As far as other longs, RIMM and that group of Telecom-Wireless equipment stocks remain quite firm, while the Internet-Content trio of CYOU, SNDA and NTES continue to suggest that institutional money has still got game(rs); and I continue to see ASIA (Asiainfo, from the Internet-Solutions group) as the most powerful, reasonable break-out leadership play. There are other bigger gainers out there, but I'm not swinging for 150% risers who've suddenly cured the need for cancer.

Tread well my friends.

Total Position: 100% net long, 38% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.4%), ASIA ( 6.5%), LIHR (6%), SNDA(5.8%), PZZA(4.3%), PEET (2.9%), MRVL(2.9%, reports this evening)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position [was just stopped on MDT]

Futures Accounts:
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave. (covered 10% last night, 1.3793)
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound, 1.5602 ave.

Ruff and No-Tumble

Volume is running at a higher clip today and leadership is still rallying. So even though the market's overall gains are subtle, under the surface things remain firm.

For now.

I took body shots being net-short most of yesterday, but today is more than making up for it. I made adjustments, both yesterday and earlier today, but I'm still keeping things close to market neutral (although my longs are high-beta).

If oil prices and the Euro vs. Dollar stall-out here, I think the market will soon stall as well. Look for this. If these keep rallying, I'll keep looking for leadership names breaking out of nice set-up consolidations and key them long.

ASIA is the breakout of the day today (highly ranked stock within a highly-ranked and rising relative-strength group, breaking out of a nice looking 6.5-wk base, on a volume pace now about 3.5x's normal). It's less than perfect, but reasonable. Perfect is when RS runs to a new high ahead of the price (RS here is a little below the previous high, even though stock price is now at a NH; so, a negative divergence there); and volume would be nicer if it were running greater than 4x's normal (which it may still manage if it surges last hour). I like above 4x's ave. vol. for an indication of power in a breakout. I'm not complaining, but as such I didn't increase beyond my initial 5% attack as it broke above the 18.63 pivot earlier this session. I hold this much still and will how well it follows through.

SNDA is breaking out today as well. I didn't add from my existing position though, as the base is less than 5-weeks old and volume is not much better than 2x's average. Often it is best to trade out when there is a low-volume breakout (especially given that the previous base was extended in price), but this name has been so powerful in the past I will give it greater respect; risk losing some of the meaty gains there.

CYOU I added to earlier when it was still down on the day, since SNDA had begun exploding up and it made sense CYOU would follow. Better lucky than dumb sometimes. I'm a bit of both, which is why I out-perform most market geniuses.

Also, I'm trading MDT short following earnings released this morning; paying me a small dividend for the 400 some-odd hours I spent updating my working short list posted last night. Scroll down if you dare.

All these boring trades are being spit live via Twitter (for educational purposes only); if you come here only for the pictures then you are on the right page. Otherwise all of this is old news by now.

Blah blah blah - when is the market going to top, right? Watch the Euro. If it turns the equity market should soon follow.

But may as well grab what it is giving in the meantime. The rally may out-live all of us for all I know. That's not a recommendation however. Gotta be too late to make money now. There's only an hour left on the session.

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net long (plays 1.06-to-1 net long considering leveraged short etf's), 56% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.2%), SNDA (6.6%), ASIA (new, 5.3%), WNR (5.3%), DRI (3.8%), PEET (2.8%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (reduced to 4.9%; Russell2k Dbl-short), STRA (5.3%), AIPC (4.1%), BKE (3.5%), SRS-long (2.7%; US Real Est. Dbl-short), CNO (2.2%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts:
-Covered SPX Jun today, 904.50, from 911.75 last night
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3577 (no stop at this moment)
-Short 10% Jun BR Pound today, 1.5499 (no stop at this moment)

Options (relevant accounts): 0.4%, Sept GM 2.00 puts, paid 1.57