Quicknote (updated portfolio)

Yezzz, it remains rather boring out there. I'm bothering to write in order to update the current (light) position here.

I picked-up SRS late yesterday as the rally faded on rising volume (distributive). This hasn't led to any assault just yet, but one may as well be prepared.

CYOU, my favorite trader the last few weeks, is reporting before the open on Monday. Unless this spikes dramatically today (higher or lower) I am going into the event with the current 4.2% position.

TSYS earnings were no great shakes - I blew out that one early today after it opened a little down and then fell instead of rallied. I'm not going to live forever - I need my positions to work following a fundamental driver such as earnings.

That leaves me with only SNDA (5.2%) and CYOU (4.2%) long at moment and the SRS-hedge (5.2%) covering my short ass for now. The leverage and uber-high beta of the latter has my accounts leaning slightly net-short, but only 15% invested.

Commentary posts have been light recently as I rest-up some during the more murky action, but I am still updating all actions live on the Twitt-twat >>>. Knock yourself out and follow if you care what I do more than what I say...just don't do anything I do.

Can you say weekend?

Beat the Dull Drums

I don't have much to say yet still. We're weakening now, perhaps reversing down. But multiple heads on CNBC are presently throbbing up and down over the idea we are going to pullback now! Everyone with a blog is pointing at the same. Some calling for a healthy pullback, others calling for doom. Either way it's a crowded space, though action is not yet enticingly terrible.

At this writing the NDX and Russell-2k are notably out-performing more-lagging indices like the Dow and SPX; breadth is still reasonably firm; and several leadership industry groups are higher by 3% and more still on the session. While it is never out of the question, that is not how a blood-bath reversal typically ensues.

Sorry, I'm getting bored again. I'm back to reducing exposure and looking to yank something out of deep water again (instead of trading in the mud). If this turns out to be a great trade short, I'll hope to be involved. At the moment I don't see it. This weekend I'll do extensive screens of rapidly declining industry groups (in terms of relative strength) and begin then a new shopping list of eligible individual shorts. Until then I'm treading water and waiting for better.

CYOU has been a terrific trading stock and (thus far) remains a powerful leader. I'll keep pushing on this beast long (in-and-out and out-and-in) and convey the moves on Twitter.

I was stopped early on STRA short, following earnings. A failure below the 200-day (now 201.46) would make this interesting again and reignite a rather mammoth HS pattern on the weekly chart. This is a recently leading industry group that has fallen-off dramatically in terms of relative strength; a typical green-light for shorting.

TSYS reports after the close today. I may or may not hold into that event (possible I will lose faith before the close, depending on the name and the general market).

If we can get the NDX to reverse lower today, I expect I will step to the sidelines altogether, or possibly re-position short (via another go with SDS or possibly SRS, depending). Until then, the blood in the water is so far faint and at the same time that the clarion calls for pulling back are increasingly loud.

A recipe for z's.

Total Position: all long; only 13% invested

Currently Long (according to size): SNDA (5.2%), CYOU (4.1%), TSYS (4.2%)

Short Swoons (and mere flesh wounds)

The pivot set-up from yesterday did indeed follow-through and bears are left biting this market to death; given their legs now have been lanced. This then sets-up short-side entry# 516 for this rally; I'm reading.

Still, I'll skip the latest ribbon cutting ceremony and catch-up with the bears later, on the way down. In the meantime I would have preferred having greater exposure long; but a fool cannot have everything if he is at least lucky - no complaints here.

I am on the move today and now maybe tomorrow as well. This is a lot of why I am lightly exposed, but I won't give that as an excuse (my excuse remains that the action has been nothing more than murky in the larger scheme of things; certainly ahead of today). If I could re-post yesterday's words, I think it will still count for the present situation. The market is a bit higher, the internals a bit stronger and the bear beer a bit flatter.

All bear chidings aside, I doubt we're on the verge of any tremendous upside in the markets just here, but I still see no reason to attack short with any size until something gets going in that direction.

You black knights still have guts, I'll give you that; it's the arms and legs which might be concerning.

STRA remains my one short at moment and reports before the open tomorrow. I may sweat this, given the continued drop in RS for that industry group, but I'll re-consider in the final 15 minutes. Check the Twitter page in the final minutes today if you care.

Total Position: 4.13-to-1; 31% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (8%), SNDA (5.1%), TSYS (4.4%), WNR (4.2%), ARST (3.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (5.9%)

CYOU (wouldn't want to be you)

While nothing but nothing says we're in for better than muddy, mirky water still, we did see a bit of upside reversal early today, following the low-volume decline from yesterday. That draws some promise now for a pivot long; let's see how it shapes up.

I let out a little line long coming off the reversal, just in case this runs. If we re-reverse lower today, something I doubt at this writing, then it might just be exciting to get short this market after all. That would be something new - an actual downtrend of more than several hours.

So IF IF IF you guys can gain any momentum downward, I'll be coming late to the party. Right now though I see nothing but Hopeful and Mopeful over there in the corner sipping flat beer from plastic cups, grumbling about market manipulation; how certain swine should be in jail while other swine just may accelerate and take prices where they really want to go; ought to be; etc. etc. etc.

I hate that kind of party, let me know when things heat up. At moment bear balloons need further helium.

CYOU , which I have been trading decently, is live again today; knocking above it's (young) all-time high on strong, rising volume. While this IPO's base is only a couple of weeks young, it has held like a rock during each recent down-draft and now has shot to new all-time highs today in both price and relative strength (RS). CYOU reports Monday before the open. If I could design it, it would rally through to Monday morning and then see profit taking after a further gap-up at Monday's open (somewhere between 33 and 35). Either way I'm looking to reduce by the close of Friday; although I'm happy to reduce on spikes higher now and add then again on pullbacks. Currently I'm holding 8% long CYOU .

TSYS reports Thursday after the close and is set-up for a potential breakout here. Volume was perfect yesterday (strong, rising volume as it rallied to the upper end of a very nice, 10-wk base), but there is not yet a new high in RS (ideal is to see a NH in RS ahead of a breakout) and today is not yet on pace to top yesterday in terms of volume. The pivot for breakout here is 10.19. I'll be looking to increase my position above that level (currently long 3.2%).

I decided against travel today. I remain lightly invested overall and I may still travel tomorrow; which would put me out of commission for most of the day, depending.

Total Position: 3.15-to-1; 25% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (8%), WNR (4.2%), ARST (3.3%), TSYS (3.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (5.9%)

Quicknote on the New Week

The current market direction remains murky and I am smaller still. My style trading is not best served by a choppy market and I'll continue to lay low as long as direction remains mixed.

Ever-bears are excited (yet again) that Friday's resilience was merely the latest-greatest bull-trapping doormat and today's down-open marks the re-re-resumption of the market's larger downtrend. Expect a 40% haircut in short short order - give or take 50%.

That sounds fun to me and far from out of the question. Still, I prefer to club wounded pup seals on an open beach rather than chase foxes in the forest. I'll let the blood flow a bit before getting involved with that thesis.

As well, I may miss most of tomorrow's session as I export my vacationing brainpan further and further out into the Pacific; yet another reason not to get involved. You guys can keep making the money.

Today I reduced my STRA short and traded out of CYOU long, for now; only 10% invested at this writing.

Total Position: 1.4-to-1, 10% invested

Currently Long (according to size): WNR (4.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (5.9%; reduced today)

Soft White Underbelly (short of a lifetime)

I'm in transition today and can't add much new. Unfortunately that included the market, where there were many new set-ups long at the open and I pretty much stayed out since I knew I couldn't keep full-tabs the rest of the day.

I'm not complaining, I had committed to resting a bit anyhow. I've got my dacron skivvies on now and I'm heading out for a swim. Spring is in the water - feels good to be alive, if you know what I mean.

With today's action, I expect we have 99 and 44/100% of the trading public now expecting a pullback, instead of the mere 98% or so apparent from yesterday (including Cramer last night, no less). If that short trade starts working, let me know. You'll need someone to take over by that point.

Battling Great Whites under-water can get pretty exhausting, huh? Tigers!

Snarky Action (sidelined and dangerous)

The action remains murky from what I see and my position has shrunk now to the point I can mail-it-in for the time being.

My longs stopped working and consequently they are nearly entirely gone. At the same time I am not yet seeing any great set-up here to attack short.

There are a lot of smart minds getting short (again!) and I wont chide them since the long-side this week stopped being such a candy-grab - but at the same time I find everything too mixed and trendless at present. If this is the next great bear set-up then text me when the riches start pouring-in - I'll leave my dumpy dental paradise (below) and come late to the better party.

You guys can make all the money for now.

Being sidelined then, I've packed teeth and brush and I'm leaving shortly (fat-ly as well). I'm embarking on the latest, greatest luxury getaway since the extinction of the Sabertooth. This jaunt's the deeply-discounted Destiny of Doom Dreamaway. They're giving me the special AAA-approved dentist-in-training rate due to poor recent demand - ha! For 3-days and 6-nights I'm allowed to spear anything that moves - I intend to get my fool money's worth.

If I can't kill the market I've got to rip at something. You don't drink this much coffee and just go home to roost.

I'll stand by until something better sets-up.

Total Position: 1.39-to-1, 16% invested

Currently Long (according to size): WNR (4%; will not hold <12.12), CYOU (2.7%; will not hold <23.90,>26.40)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (9.3%); under the 50-day for STRA looks good (currently 174.34); mammoth HS pattern on wkly-chart.