Thursday, April 16, 2009

17 Longs (all wrong, but lucky still)

With JPM earnings now out of the way, action today was mixed early, but now reasonably positive. Leadership is humming quietly along, with technology notably strong on the tape again.

Due to the quiet rise of this pivot-rally from yesterday's early lows, I am able to hold patiently; adding here and trimming there but, without big changes. I'm a bit hedged, but remain a mutual fund - loaded with aggressive growth.

Further big drivers on the horizon: GOOG reports tonight, then Citigroup (C) and Generally Electric (GE) before the open tomorrow. Monday is Bank O'merica (BAC) earnings. Mattel (MAT) is also set to report before the open tomorrow. I would take a stab short there ahead of that number (stabbing Barbie in this case), but for the fact that so many uglies are blasting higher on bad news.

Note the fact that AMR was down yesterday morning on earnings, and then rallied only 25% in the span of 10 minutes; a rather effective assault on bears.

I know I don't want to short a tape where losers act like that; one of the reasons I am stupid-lucky and holding half the tape long at moment.

I took profits on half the GS trade, sold 123.74 in the pre-market; I'm holding the other half for now. This tranche (now 4.9%) may end up a core position, depending. I will unload when there is a clear failure, distribution, stalling or break (In either GS or in the mkt); which means if there is no reason to run I will be in this one through to higher-highs and potentially beyond; we'll see how lucky it gets, I don't have a target.

I added a new oil name long into the mix, CEO on the pullback. China seems to be the driver these days still, as so many of the groups rising in relative strength turn up Chinese stock symbols as the strongest names within those groups. Westworlder WNR is my only other oil play in the mix; been in that for some weeks now (except perhaps a day or two). IOC is one I should have held onto, but at least I sold it significantly extended (31-ish a couple of weeks ago). IOC is headquartered in Australia; it's a bit thin and it recently moved onto the NYSE; given all of that I'm ok to let someone else make the money on IOC.

I have orders to sell the RIMM-long a little below the 200-day MA. That may be a stretch for this session (200-day is 68.60 currently), but it could be reached by the after-mkt tonight, depending on GOOG. I will be open to sell within 12 cents of the mark in case we spike on the GOOG report; I'll be gone before then should the price spike that high prior.

I did manage to get back my NFLX later yesterday, and within a 15 cents of the 45.55; this too, is a would-be core position, assuming it doesn't fail in the meantime (now 5.1% sized-position). Yesterday I also reloaded OTEX-long (now 6.7%). This one does looked poised to breakout, but it is thin and now below the 1st pivot-point of 36.40 (I may have bitten-off too-much too-soon here); I will reduce if it cannot get back above 36.40 by tomorrow (sooner if it starts downward from here; below 35.70 or so).

I added to PMCS long today. This one looks poised for a fresh breakout (5.5 wk base); rising to the upper end of its range on strong, rising volume, with earnings due next week (Apr 23, after the close).

I am going to be out this afternoon, traveling early for this weekend. I'm running low on whale blubber (why go solar when you can burn blubber for free?) and subsequently I'll be icefloing in a broad, northerly direction. I'll be posting, but expect light sentencing for the next few days. Trades and allocation will continue to convey via Twitter, but I won't be talking so much. I'll be frozen.

If the market spikes still-higher with emotion I will reduce exposure dramatically. If the tide turns I will increase the hedge dramatically and then look to unload the names going poor on the charts. And if the market just continues onward, slowly and surely taking us up to higher-highs without much in the way of drama, then I will just sit fat, cull here and there and perhaps add to existing winners, etc. etc., yup yup

Total Position: 8-to-1 net long, 79% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 4-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): OTEX, PMCS, NFLX, GS, ARST, RIMM, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 8.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

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