Added Long (and Mount Deer Doom avoided)

Outside of the Chinese growth stocks, the market showed further resilience yesterday and I'm buying in some on today's early weakness. Nothing too extreme and I've spread-out now between 4 leadership groups.

Trades here are still being fed live via my Twitter page; while commentary on this side remains subdued.

As for the Chinese internet-content/video-gamer names yesterday, in the end action there was suspect at best. CYOU's The Duke of Mount Deer release-date will be delayed, God forbid, and the name remains under pressure. I'm not yet against it, but I've yet to reload any trigger there. While they have yet to break anything significant, volume has been heavy on the decline.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 28% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MRVL (8.2%), BIDU (7.1%), GS (7%), NTAP (5.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Churn while you Earn (scaling further short)

The glass is evolving half-empty at the moment with waters inside churning.

While yesterday it was the NDX flashing distributive action, today it is the NDX and pretty much everything else (sans Medicals). Volume is rising and heavy again today, the pace of which is extreme.

Combine this with today's ugly gap-up and reversal (again, the NDX ugliest in that regard), and you have a genuine toppy, churning tape which in my world suggests some kind of top.

Cute churning action.

I say some kind because I don't know (and I don't pretend to know) whether this is simply a mild pullback before resuming upward again, the beginning of an intermediate-term trend lower, or the latest, greatest decline-to-define-all-declines for futureless generations to come.

Leadership growth charts are looking poor at the moment (some breaking down, many others getting choppy), but nothing too dramatic at this point.

Elements so far then command a bit of respect, perhaps nothing more. I'll continue to let out more short as this develops (thus positioning myself as one dirty, short-bastard by the time blood is seriously flowing, or else keep overall-small; nibbling on dumpster-fare should the downside lack lethal dejection.

Sad story - I tried shorting a couple of Solars gapping 8 and 10% higher (they are 8 and 10% down now on the day; nice swing), but could not get shares borrowed. At-the-money option premiums were too high to go that route, so I've got nothing short in Solar.

I intentionally waited to short the Financials. But GS now, unless it recovers to 36.05 by the close, is set to mark a key-reversal (gapping to a higher-high and then closing at a lower-low); volume is rising there as well. I got GS off short, but it is MS that is perhaps more exciting, since that beast couldn't really rally lately and has lower relative strength. I'm working orders to short MS (>27.70 at moment), but may not manage to get it today; if not, I'll take the first reasonable set-up, regardless of price.

That's it. I don't want to jinx the pullback for you guys by blowing sexy conch calls about colliding wave counts, imploding stars and bloody-green clovers. I suspect tired bears will be reluctant-but-happy to exit quickly now that they see losses finally improving. That's the bitch about being so early - nothing left in the lust tank to take advantage of one's previous dreams, once they start to gel.

Did that make any sense? I'll just try to keep 1-small step behind the market action and let you guys make the smart calls - how's that? Stupid-lucky showing up late to all the finer parties.

Snort.

Total Position: 2.42-to-1 net short, 27% invested

Currently Long (according to size): WNR (4%), CYOU (new, 3.8% - benching on 10-day m.a., post-2pm basis

Currently Short (according to size): AAPL (8%), GS (6.1%), STRA (4.9%)

Futures Accounts: Covered NDX June (unfortunately) at 1405.75 for small profit; looking to re-enter; blew-out on the slice lower today as breadth was then 2-1 positive, but internals have worsened sufficiently since.

Cute churning action.

North Snort (bear is good food)

Well, horseshoe up my ass.

GOOG, GE and C earnings are out of the way, the market dropped, as per bear's predictions. But the option-expiration action simmered into frozen dull drums, drifting drifting drifting until leadership names began quietly raging again on the tape. I'm lucky-still and still making money; loaded to the whale gills on aggressive growth.

However, I have begun phasing downward some; increasing the hedge and decreasing the number of longs. I can't stay too ramped-up for too long and I can't taunt you bears forever before getting bit.

That said, I will hang in net-long until the action forces otherwise (I don't have a target). I'll cut back on emotional thrusts; while culling-out dead wood; and I'm hedging according to present action and my own idiot-lucky determination of present risk (since I have too many names to dump at once, I'll increase the hedge dramatically once needed, allowing me then to let go and/or trim the lesser-performing longs soon thereafter).

I let go the Rimm-long today, as that one tagged the 200-day moving average. I would reconsider a new set-up long above that level (currently stands at 68.34, but is trending slightly downward); I entertained the idea of shorting this one up here today and benching w the 200-day on a closing basis, but it has too much momentum. I'll let you guys make the money on that trade.

GS flashed a negative divergence yesterday, so I blew out my remaining half. If it were my only child I'd hold it longer, but I have enough mealy-mouths left to keep me busy.

And as advertised I'm cutting this short. Action is positive now and that is good because I am out on the weekend already and have other distractions.

I'm deep outside, in some upper ascending triangle of resistance, somewhere North of Nanuvut. I'm skipping Disney-Finlayson Islands here, since I was up most of the night smoking wolves out of an abandoned whale-bone shelter. The wolves weren't too happy, but nor was I. Earlier I tried sleeping in the hull of the boat, ice cracking beneath sleeping bag and boat in unison. This place is too cold, even for my taste. The sky now shifts various shades of wanton pallor as the sun squibs higher.

Up here they bathe in salt water, hacksaw whale ribs in order to skewer other whales, then hefty-bag the cubes for easy Spring storage. I love this place.

Oh, BAC reports before the open Monday. No one would be too surprised to see this rally stall on that beast. I'll be back home for the action. Bears can point to that event now - an even better top for the market ;)



Total Position: 4.35-1 net long, 74% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 2.17-to-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, ARST, OTEX, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 13.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

17 Longs (all wrong, but lucky still)

With JPM earnings now out of the way, action today was mixed early, but now reasonably positive. Leadership is humming quietly along, with technology notably strong on the tape again.

Due to the quiet rise of this pivot-rally from yesterday's early lows, I am able to hold patiently; adding here and trimming there but, without big changes. I'm a bit hedged, but remain a mutual fund - loaded with aggressive growth.

Further big drivers on the horizon: GOOG reports tonight, then Citigroup (C) and Generally Electric (GE) before the open tomorrow. Monday is Bank O'merica (BAC) earnings. Mattel (MAT) is also set to report before the open tomorrow. I would take a stab short there ahead of that number (stabbing Barbie in this case), but for the fact that so many uglies are blasting higher on bad news.

Note the fact that AMR was down yesterday morning on earnings, and then rallied only 25% in the span of 10 minutes; a rather effective assault on bears.

I know I don't want to short a tape where losers act like that; one of the reasons I am stupid-lucky and holding half the tape long at moment.

I took profits on half the GS trade, sold 123.74 in the pre-market; I'm holding the other half for now. This tranche (now 4.9%) may end up a core position, depending. I will unload when there is a clear failure, distribution, stalling or break (In either GS or in the mkt); which means if there is no reason to run I will be in this one through to higher-highs and potentially beyond; we'll see how lucky it gets, I don't have a target.

I added a new oil name long into the mix, CEO on the pullback. China seems to be the driver these days still, as so many of the groups rising in relative strength turn up Chinese stock symbols as the strongest names within those groups. Westworlder WNR is my only other oil play in the mix; been in that for some weeks now (except perhaps a day or two). IOC is one I should have held onto, but at least I sold it significantly extended (31-ish a couple of weeks ago). IOC is headquartered in Australia; it's a bit thin and it recently moved onto the NYSE; given all of that I'm ok to let someone else make the money on IOC.

I have orders to sell the RIMM-long a little below the 200-day MA. That may be a stretch for this session (200-day is 68.60 currently), but it could be reached by the after-mkt tonight, depending on GOOG. I will be open to sell within 12 cents of the mark in case we spike on the GOOG report; I'll be gone before then should the price spike that high prior.

I did manage to get back my NFLX later yesterday, and within a 15 cents of the 45.55; this too, is a would-be core position, assuming it doesn't fail in the meantime (now 5.1% sized-position). Yesterday I also reloaded OTEX-long (now 6.7%). This one does looked poised to breakout, but it is thin and now below the 1st pivot-point of 36.40 (I may have bitten-off too-much too-soon here); I will reduce if it cannot get back above 36.40 by tomorrow (sooner if it starts downward from here; below 35.70 or so).

I added to PMCS long today. This one looks poised for a fresh breakout (5.5 wk base); rising to the upper end of its range on strong, rising volume, with earnings due next week (Apr 23, after the close).

I am going to be out this afternoon, traveling early for this weekend. I'm running low on whale blubber (why go solar when you can burn blubber for free?) and subsequently I'll be icefloing in a broad, northerly direction. I'll be posting, but expect light sentencing for the next few days. Trades and allocation will continue to convey via Twitter, but I won't be talking so much. I'll be frozen.

If the market spikes still-higher with emotion I will reduce exposure dramatically. If the tide turns I will increase the hedge dramatically and then look to unload the names going poor on the charts. And if the market just continues onward, slowly and surely taking us up to higher-highs without much in the way of drama, then I will just sit fat, cull here and there and perhaps add to existing winners, etc. etc., yup yup

Total Position: 8-to-1 net long, 79% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 4-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): OTEX, PMCS, NFLX, GS, ARST, RIMM, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 8.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

Strike That (re-illuminate long)

What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger, right?

Bears can't be happy.

The market did gap-lower but demand has since Mobbed sellers. As the major's cannot break down, then we should either chop sideways or else revert higher. I prefer chopping, whereby leadership stocks work quietly higher under an otherwise quiet surface. But if she wants to burn it up instead I won't get nasty (though I will let some of the air out on any emotional blast higher.

I backed-off from (brief) hedging and am back to fully-bloated long (aggressive growth leadership). For the moment I still have half of the JPM short (from yesterday's close), but it is now paired with GS long. Other than that I have RSH and a small amount of EGO short (the latter is no hedge, just a Cramer double-promo fade; hopefully for the ages).

My FMER Cramer-fade from last night was a scalp in the end. I took profits as soon as it was clear the world wasn't going to end again. I still love you though Cramer. And thanks for the tips on buying CELG (for the last few months!). I'm sorry I didn't take that one seriously.

That's the dope on my shorts. But it is the (many) longs that are far more interesting; to this fish at least. I know these names don't appeal to you, that's Okay. I'm just going to sit here quietly and make some money while you guys find better things to do. I've got enough over-roasted coffee to last all week. I can piss in canteens if need be and I just peel-off whale jerky on an as-needed basis.

Yep, the action should get quiet now methinks. I'm thinking nap-time in fact.

The sweat shop then may closed for me today - I'm in monitor mode. I'll spitTwitt changes from here out, but again don't do anything I do (at least not because of anything I have said). Watch a mad-trader blow-up with too many longs for fun and informational porpoises only.

I'm a bloody mutual fund here at the moment. Good trading.

Total Position: 7.85-to-1 net long, 96% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, NFLX, ARST, RJI, PMCS, MNRO, WNR, SNDA, LFT, NVLS, CHKP, GS, FORM (new), TNDM, TSYS, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): RSH, JPM, EGO

Copyright LLBAG, 2009 - Locked Loaded and Bloated Aggressive Growth Fund, LTD

Quicknote (slight darkward shift)

I shifted away from my aggressive-long stance and into the general direction of neutral, ahead of the final trading hour and increasingly so into today's negative close.

Gone for now are GS and TSYS longs. New shorts included a healthy degree of JPM (7%), RSH (4.6%) and...

After the close I was able to grab another financial short, new Cramer-promo FMER (5% position); complete with a 4% premium to the closing price.

Praise be Cramer.

Futures are selling some tonight, as GM is apparently going goose eggs. Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a little protection now - if the market can't regain any strength within the first 90 minutes I'm returning to the dark side. Otherwise I'm content to let go of the new hedges and roll long with the in-crowd yet some more.

Worst case for me, financials rock higher while growth names get nailed early. That would start my new quarter off wrong.

Pimp my Twitt for all the finer details >>>

Total Position: 4-to-1 net long, 93% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, NFLX, ARST, RJI, MNRO, PMCS, WNR, SNDA, CHKP, NVLS, LFT, TNDM, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): JPM, FMER, RSH, EGO