Friday, April 17, 2009
North Snort (bear is good food)
Well, horseshoe up my ass.
GOOG, GE and C earnings are out of the way, the market dropped, as per bear's predictions. But the option-expiration action simmered into frozen dull drums, drifting drifting drifting until leadership names began quietly raging again on the tape. I'm lucky-still and still making money; loaded to the whale gills on aggressive growth.
However, I have begun phasing downward some; increasing the hedge and decreasing the number of longs. I can't stay too ramped-up for too long and I can't taunt you bears forever before getting bit.
That said, I will hang in net-long until the action forces otherwise (I don't have a target). I'll cut back on emotional thrusts; while culling-out dead wood; and I'm hedging according to present action and my own idiot-lucky determination of present risk (since I have too many names to dump at once, I'll increase the hedge dramatically once needed, allowing me then to let go and/or trim the lesser-performing longs soon thereafter).
I let go the Rimm-long today, as that one tagged the 200-day moving average. I would reconsider a new set-up long above that level (currently stands at 68.34, but is trending slightly downward); I entertained the idea of shorting this one up here today and benching w the 200-day on a closing basis, but it has too much momentum. I'll let you guys make the money on that trade.
GS flashed a negative divergence yesterday, so I blew out my remaining half. If it were my only child I'd hold it longer, but I have enough mealy-mouths left to keep me busy.
And as advertised I'm cutting this short. Action is positive now and that is good because I am out on the weekend already and have other distractions.
I'm deep outside, in some upper ascending triangle of resistance, somewhere North of Nanuvut. I'm skipping Disney-Finlayson Islands here, since I was up most of the night smoking wolves out of an abandoned whale-bone shelter. The wolves weren't too happy, but nor was I. Earlier I tried sleeping in the hull of the boat, ice cracking beneath sleeping bag and boat in unison. This place is too cold, even for my taste. The sky now shifts various shades of wanton pallor as the sun squibs higher.
Up here they bathe in salt water, hacksaw whale ribs in order to skewer other whales, then hefty-bag the cubes for easy Spring storage. I love this place.
Oh, BAC reports before the open Monday. No one would be too surprised to see this rally stall on that beast. I'll be back home for the action. Bears can point to that event now - an even better top for the market ;)
Total Position: 4.35-1 net long, 74% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 2.17-to-1 net long at moment)
Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, ARST, OTEX, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP
Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 13.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)