Bearspring!

Bountiful images aside, I'm going to make this as boring as possible.

Candles did glow red late in the day after all and the market reversed lower on reasonable, rising volume; an outside reversal and clear distribution day, the first of either in some time.

Let's discuss some (boring negatives):

-Oil and most commodities were down again and this was true for all the day. Cramer came on at one point late (just before the market peaked) and made the argument that the stock market was finally de-coupling from the movement in oil prices. That was true today, but only up to the moment that he mentioned it. I suspect tonight Cramer will find a was to take credit for today's pullback now, but who cares about that? He can take credit for his own birth - I won't mind.

-Shanghai has been down all week. Small GDP-economy or not, this is where a lot of the growth is and partly why US Mainstreet has no idea how a stock market can be so good when things are obviously so bad out there (out there, in their minds, is not far enough out the window perhaps, as emerging markets have been fueling growth, while domestically, only cost-cutting has been adding much to bottom-lines).

-The Baltic Dry index has been down for some weeks now; well enough off the highs to make a negative impression.

-Trish, I mentioned earlier, today asked a pro when and not if the Dow would reach 10,000. I have said many times to listen to Trish. You think I am crazy, but you don't know Trish the way I know Trish. Trish is a sentiment composite; she's a peach.

But before you bears go crazy with excitement, there are positives:

-We were still making new highs in indices and in key stocks as late as, well today. Leadership has yet to do anything but lead on the upside, not down.

-There are a ton of stock offerings coming this week and many of them have the Goldman/Morgan Stanley name on them. I cannot recall a week with big offerings where the market had a substantial sell-off. Big firms with big sell buttons want nothing of a panic when they are trying to distribute such quantity of stock. Hands-off the sell buttons right now would be the company line...let's see what happens.

-Fervor, yep fervor today now on the message boards, as bears finally have something to high-five about. And I have to say, it reminds me of someone finally getting a big win at the race-track and shouting with way-too-much vigor. Sorry, but this is what a long-term loser sounds like when he eventually nails an exacta. Bears should not over-celebrate a small victory here. Bears should be keen for either of three possibilities now and respond accordingly. Hope is not a trading strategy.

-A small pullback here would be a nice positive, assuming it doesn't deteriorate with accelerating force each day. Letting off a little steam, without that acceleration, would be a bullish set-up. If we see accelerating force, then respond accordingly - naturally.

That's as boring as I can make it for such an exciting day. I sold stocks with abandon in the last hour today - but that is less about what I might think and more about what I do (accelerate exposure going up and manage risk, if not change sides, going down).

I don't even want to know what I actually think about any of it.

I went from 13 to 8 names long today and I reduced several of those remaining. Here is how it looks here going into Thursday...

-Total Position: Aprox. 1.5-to-1 net-long (down from 4.3-to-1), considering levered SKF and under-levered UUP hedges.
-56% invested overall (down from 84).
-Pure-longs = 35% (down from 65).

Currently Long (according to size): SNDA (5.5%), EBIX (5.3%), DGW (4.9%), CLW (5%), CYOU (4.2%), TQNT (3.9%), CFSG (3.8%), ULTA (3.4%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-UUP-long (12.1%); current inverse correlation with equity mkts defines this as an equity hedge
-SKF-long (US Financials Dbl-short; (7.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SKF and TWM represents being dbl-short their respective index).

Futures Accounts: no position

Quicknote on Hedge, Wheel-O's and Cramer Dividends

I'm going to be a little busy this week, as such I'll be posting less. I will however continue to Spit-twitt new trades live.

We have something of a pullback, so I'll take a minute and explain how I am hedging for it. First, Friday ended much better here than it began, capped-off in the after-mkt by two lovely set-ups courtesy of Dr. Cramer. I got short HBAN up in the nethersphere (as high as 13.5% above the closing price) and I also got to unload my largest long, TQNT, also in the exosphere (6.325, greater than 9% above the closing price).

So while ravaged, bloody and bitten early Friday (somewhat), I got back to the cave with dignity and well, grace. More Kisses for Cramer. That guy that keeps on giving.

I just let go the Chinese hedge (FXP) and from here I will look to hold my (4) Chinese growth names (CYOU reloaded again today). If tomorrow is down further and there is no sign yet of a bid in the market, I'd prefer to reduce exposure and the number of longs, instead of re-loading another FXP-hedge.

I'm still holding TWM and SRS. Given the severe negative breadth on the day (volume however, is relatively low). I increased TWM intraday, but I expect to back-off the additional shares near the close (sooner if the market catches and keeps a bid). So while I'm closer to flat at the moment, in terms of exposure, I'll go into the night leaning around 3-1 net-long, depending.

If the market still lives, then by tomorrow we'll see something resembling strength. If we are ugly still tomorrow, I'll reduce exposure by shrinking the number of long positions (holding winners first); let the remaining hedges go then according to the action, exposure-long, etc.

And certainly, I don't mean to suggest that the market cannot begin trending downward now (I just need to see it and respond before giving up the easier job of buying leadership in a good market instead). Who can blame me for that?

In fact, my go-to voodoo guy is spinning perpendicular right now and that has me a little nervous (not kidding). The illustrated chart above comes from TX Tornado's post The Wheel. Apparently, price, time and areas of Da Vinci influence are are all in harmony (my description). (SPX 950 was tested on 6/5 at a time/price which was 90 degrees from the 3/6 square and previous resistance).

I don't know what any of that means. Frankly though, I don't need to. When the universe lines up its ducks and starts playing Wheel-O with the markets, I keep my guard up.

Let's see what transpires.

Total Position: 3-to-1 net-long (plays 1.5-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM and SRS), 66% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (increased today, 6.3%), SWN (reloaded today, 4.7%, WFT (reloaded today, 4.6%), RAX (4.3%), ARST (4.3%), LFT (3.9%), MRVL (3.6%), PEET (3.5%), CYOU (reloaded today, 3.1%), SNDA (2.9%), AU (2.9%), JDSU (2.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (13.7%; Russell2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (2.7%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: no current position

CNBCeethe (value of the anti-genius)

I most certainly still, do not wish to post my thoughts on this pullback.

Days like today are a little funny for me. Not funny ha-ha, but funny strange.

On the one hand, I am forced to neutralize my position some (I cannot keep aggressively short as the market begins to firm). On the other hand though, I want to fire wicked-short, almost out of spite. Thus my actions contradict my desires. The stuff piss and vinegar is made of.

Someone has to pay.

First, in terms of positioning, outlook and the general reason some of you follow this blurb - I have shifted more towards neutral and will continue shifting as long as the market continues firming. The tactic so far has been to add leadership longs, at what may turn out to be decent pivot-entries (so far so good, though not entirely perfect). Late yesterday I did unload short SP500 futures and I did hot-dog out and back into SRS today, saving almost 4% of the decline in that play. But otherwise I have so far held onto shorts (mainly because they are so far working and if we stall-out again soon, they'll continue to work further).

As a consequence of all this, my total size is now greater than 70% (am I boring you yet?), but I am leaning less than 2-1 net short (down from nearly 5-1 net short at one point yesterday, including leveraged 2x's etf's).

New longs include: SNDA, PMCS, NFLX, PEET and addt'l CYOU.
New shorts include BKE and AIPC
Follow my Twittspit for details and further actions.

Back to the spite...

Since I cannot say much more about the market, I may as well preach. Value, my friends, is everywhere. You don't know this, because you don't know how to look for it. For example, I listen incessantly to CNBC. This has been true for years. And Years. This has contributed to a constitution of ever-increasing bile, surging slowly and steadily over too many decades. This is delicate. Unless steam is carefully and dutifully released I am in grave danger of blowing massive harry's. A projectile of bezoared chunks and punching of liquid crystal displays; whereby TV-heads with toxic eloquence finally, ultimately, send me beyond the gilded edge.

Think I'm kidding?

Seriously, imagine the stress of trading markets for a living. Then imagine listening to these numb-yuks while going about your day - every day! You might ask why do it? I know my family is curious. It's a decent question, surely.

I do it for value. There is so much value (in all the wrong places), that I'd be a fool (translation: a sane man) to dismiss it. I'm not going to trade like this and give up that edge. The edge of the anti-genius.

I've spoken of Cramer, so let's leave him out of this one. That value is simple to understand (Cramer gooses stocks higher, giving a temporary, artificial boost and thus an edge by going the other way). But there is better value. And if you have read this far then I suppose I'll let you in on it. However (I caught you moving to the edge of your seat, ha!), since I don't have all day to ramble for bleeding ever, all for your benefit (not true, since I admitted already I need to valve-off some of this bile) I am merely going to paste my IM's with my East Coast contingent from earlier today. This gets across the value I'm teasing you so far about (although in the end it is still a tease, since there is there is no specific gem for today. I will follow-up though, hopefully tomorrow, or at least as soon as it shines next. Did that make sense? I'm telling you about the gems that come forth, but there is no new gem currently beheld - stay tuned)

[exoquarx is me and Eastcrow's name has been modified; to protect the innocent]...

(exoquarx): turn up cnbc. you hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): got it. sell your house short? who is that guy larry?
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): dont ask
(exoquarx): reagan administration
(exoquarx): gin soaked
(exoquarx): that's not the voice i mean
(exoquarx): this other guy here is the gov'ts patsy (steve leisman)
(exoquarx): the 2nd head from L is actually smart. ignore her.
(exoquarx): Leisman is like a harvard football jock
(exoquarx): but couldnt get into harvard
(exoquarx): they call him their chief economist - which means chief hack.
(Eastcrow): that laugh from larry is something else - new high euro
(exoquarx): ok, bought another restaurant after all. that group leading the day tho
(exoquarx): there she is again - hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): y. i like cpki
(exoquarx): yuk
(Eastcrow): pinapple pizza? Invented in calif
(exoquarx): PZZA going 2b a short soon as well
(exoquarx): you hear the woman asking questions now?
[Trish Reagan]
(Eastcrow): y
(exoquarx): cnbc always has one of these (almost always)
(exoquarx): a tv personality who is now reporting on the mkts
(Eastcrow): oh actualy cpki not looking so good now...
(exoquarx): garbage stock
(Eastcrow): garbage pizza
(exoquarx): ANYtime you hear this woman actually reveal an opinion about the mkt ...
(exoquarx): go the other way
(exoquarx): it's magic
(exoquarx): guy talking now, you mentioned, has studied mkts his whole life
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): and drunk a lot of gin
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(Eastcrow): really? she like a cramer short?
(exoquarx): no. more magical than cramer short
(exoquarx): cramer moves the stock and that gives you the edge
(exoquarx): this idiot has no clue and when she 'gets-it' and spouts an opinion (or starts shrieking about how amazing something is) get ready for the other direction
(exoquarx): this is religion, spiritual, magic
(exoquarx): unbelievable and totally accurate, in reverse
(exoquarx): when the tv-types who know NOTHING reveal an opinion about the mkt
(exoquarx): you can look for setups the other direction
(exoquarx): this plays on the idea that once everyone has figured it out the move is over
(exoquarx): similar to when the mkt makes cover of Time/Newsweek; move is over
(exoquarx): or at least ready to counter
(Eastcrow): u see the uber bear? Dow to 1000 guy?
(exoquarx): wasnt listening to him, ...the guy just now? missed it
(exoquarx): but my ear is tuned to her, believe me
(Eastcrow): he predicted that the dow was going to 1000
(exoquarx): wow, that's my prediction. back to early 80's; 25 yrs of support there
(exoquarx): what is the driver, he say?
(exoquarx): nuclear?
(exoquarx): he needs nuclear
(exoquarx): big ugly war
(exoquarx): no more people
(exoquarx): doubt he said that tho
(exoquarx): the guys who know something are less useful really
(exoquarx): not that this guy knows anything. i dont know him
(exoquarx): if they are really smart , then i listen
(exoquarx): there's a few
(exoquarx): thank god
(exoquarx): otherwise i'm more interested in the anti-genius
(exoquarx): especially when they get inspired
(exoquarx): this one is beyond annoying
[Trish Reagan again]
(exoquarx): and knows nothing
(exoquarx): more nothing than you think is possible
(exoquarx): anti genius
(exoquarx): those are the people to follow
(exoquarx): this is why i am so angry
(exoquarx): i listen to these people all day for year after year
(exoquarx): makes you want to bite a german shepard
(exoquarx): just to get the stress out
(exoquarx): she's a peach
(exoquarx): there was a women 10 and 15 yrs ago
(exoquarx): wow
(exoquarx): the best ever [Cannot remember her name]
(exoquarx): i could tell by her octave how to trade the mkt
(exoquarx): kind of like when SRS was at the high today
(exoquarx): her octave might go up
(exoquarx): she would drone, drone drone all day
(exoquarx): every day
(exoquarx): but when she began to shriek...
(exoquarx): it was a perfect trade the other way
(exoquarx): i found god
(exoquarx): that's kudlow again.
(exoquarx): gin gin gin
(exoquarx): gulp gulp gulp
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(exoquarx): no value
(Eastcrow): funny women on this show. are you talking about the one with the white blouse (br hair) not the blond in yellow?
(exoquarx): the one with the triangle for a nose
(exoquarx): not the blond
(exoquarx): i ignore her
(exoquarx): not smart enough /not dumb enough
(exoquarx): i mean the one who makes you think low of humanity when she starts squeaking
(exoquarx): i dont know what she's wearing
(exoquarx): i only have sound on
(exoquarx): can't take the pictures
(Eastcrow): lets see if she comes back. now is "power lunch" what ever that is
(Eastcrow): glup glup glup
(exoquarx): power lunch is good-morning america
(exoquarx): waste of time
(exoquarx): only reason to listen is in case news breaks
(exoquarx): otherwise a complete waste
(exoquarx): turn on channel 4 instead
(exoquarx): same shit
(exoquarx): coffee mugs should be in hand
(exoquarx): i want to punch them all
(exoquarx): cant even trade off them
(exoquarx): no value
(exoquarx): SNDA coming on now
...
(exoquarx): there she is
(exoquarx): big value
(exoquarx): triangle nose
(exoquarx): DGI is priced. not really trading tho
(exoquarx): priced 19. we couldnt get any shares - sucks
(Eastcrow): oh there is the one with the nose. to the right?
(exoquarx): dunno
(exoquarx): but i heard her just then
(exoquarx): coffee mug time
(exoquarx): zzzzzzzzz
(Eastcrow): well now I know why you are so screwed up - watching that show for so long.
(exoquarx): here...
(exoquarx): http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Video/080712/nn_regan_xtalk_080712.300w.jpg
(exoquarx): miss piggy
(exoquarx): trish regan
(exoquarx): nice name - trish
(exoquarx): pretty much useless today. no inspired gems
(exoquarx): see if she figures anything out tomorrow
[god willing]

Snort!

Strike That (re-illuminate long)

What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger, right?

Bears can't be happy.

The market did gap-lower but demand has since Mobbed sellers. As the major's cannot break down, then we should either chop sideways or else revert higher. I prefer chopping, whereby leadership stocks work quietly higher under an otherwise quiet surface. But if she wants to burn it up instead I won't get nasty (though I will let some of the air out on any emotional blast higher.

I backed-off from (brief) hedging and am back to fully-bloated long (aggressive growth leadership). For the moment I still have half of the JPM short (from yesterday's close), but it is now paired with GS long. Other than that I have RSH and a small amount of EGO short (the latter is no hedge, just a Cramer double-promo fade; hopefully for the ages).

My FMER Cramer-fade from last night was a scalp in the end. I took profits as soon as it was clear the world wasn't going to end again. I still love you though Cramer. And thanks for the tips on buying CELG (for the last few months!). I'm sorry I didn't take that one seriously.

That's the dope on my shorts. But it is the (many) longs that are far more interesting; to this fish at least. I know these names don't appeal to you, that's Okay. I'm just going to sit here quietly and make some money while you guys find better things to do. I've got enough over-roasted coffee to last all week. I can piss in canteens if need be and I just peel-off whale jerky on an as-needed basis.

Yep, the action should get quiet now methinks. I'm thinking nap-time in fact.

The sweat shop then may closed for me today - I'm in monitor mode. I'll spitTwitt changes from here out, but again don't do anything I do (at least not because of anything I have said). Watch a mad-trader blow-up with too many longs for fun and informational porpoises only.

I'm a bloody mutual fund here at the moment. Good trading.

Total Position: 7.85-to-1 net long, 96% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, NFLX, ARST, RJI, PMCS, MNRO, WNR, SNDA, LFT, NVLS, CHKP, GS, FORM (new), TNDM, TSYS, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): RSH, JPM, EGO

Copyright LLBAG, 2009 - Locked Loaded and Bloated Aggressive Growth Fund, LTD

Quicknote (slight darkward shift)

I shifted away from my aggressive-long stance and into the general direction of neutral, ahead of the final trading hour and increasingly so into today's negative close.

Gone for now are GS and TSYS longs. New shorts included a healthy degree of JPM (7%), RSH (4.6%) and...

After the close I was able to grab another financial short, new Cramer-promo FMER (5% position); complete with a 4% premium to the closing price.

Praise be Cramer.

Futures are selling some tonight, as GM is apparently going goose eggs. Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a little protection now - if the market can't regain any strength within the first 90 minutes I'm returning to the dark side. Otherwise I'm content to let go of the new hedges and roll long with the in-crowd yet some more.

Worst case for me, financials rock higher while growth names get nailed early. That would start my new quarter off wrong.

Pimp my Twitt for all the finer details >>>

Total Position: 4-to-1 net long, 93% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, NFLX, ARST, RJI, MNRO, PMCS, WNR, SNDA, CHKP, NVLS, LFT, TNDM, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): JPM, FMER, RSH, EGO

Med is Dead (Kisses from Cramer)

Quick post here. Up-open in market is fading, but nothing completely ugly as of yet.

Everything Medical however is getting wrecked. I got off shorts in HUM, ELOS and some ATHN (not enough), but others were just slipping away and orders unfilled. Watching Cramer fav's like ABT, BAX and AET on the tape today is humorous in a sick sort of way. I think he just promo-pushed BAX for a second time last week; this, after warning us about Healthcare and Obama the week before. Is this guy just a sick genius in reverse, or is he the scum of the Earth pumping up stocks which are ready to die?

FSYS was a recent promo-pump of his. I tried and couldn't borrow that pig every day for two weeks, following an initial, successful scalp on his behalf.

I guess he didn't say FSYS would go straight up.

And thanks for the BAC shorts tough guy - yer my favorite head of beef.
"...As much as I love Wachovia, I think Bank of America is going to 60 in a heartbeat." Cramer quote from October 4, 2007.

Gotta go...the Twitterditter will take it from here >>>


Total Position: currently 1.91-to-1 net short, (57.6% invested)

Currently Long (according to size): WNR, SNDA, PMCS, ARST

Currently Short (according to size): HUM, BWA, ALV, V, ELOS, GTIV, AUY, ATHN

Woot Woot! and Orphan Soot

When the widows and orphans are recommending getting short, you've got to have you guard on...and your shorts off!

You saw what I saw today, so I really don't need to recap. Shorts ignited account-fuses lately and blew soot into their own frenzied faces today. Citigroup was up 50%! ...to about $1.50/share. The market was up 380 Dow points! ...to about lunchtime levels of last Wednesday.

Even pigs fly on occasion if you wind them up enough.

Nothing I do requires any tremendous genius. I leave wave counts, price targets and sunflower seed models for other guys. But the ability to recognize pattern shifts and then adjust quickly makes a definite difference. Trade the style you are best at. My style is crazy-time.

As a matter of fact, I'm terrifically unsure just what the hell is my next step. That's true much of the time, but it is especially true tonight. Usually I bring a thesis to each day, but always what I am trying to do is react with the market at hand. That worked well today as I was on guard for a potential blow-UP. The longs in my portfolio and others on Sunday's eligible long-list were quite live and still look tonight like they should advance further. But having said all of that, I didn't like today's rally.

It was all bangers and mash to be sure. Glorious green cascading from virtually every industry screen. And based on the severity of the internals I was willing to bet my dog's left nut we were going to close on the day's highs (not to worry - he's already gelded. I pawned those off in a previous bad run).

But as much of a bullish case every vibrating TV-head this side of Jon Stewart is floating tonight, the fact is this rally was not so constructive as it was classically bearish in style (too-far-too-fast or basically all-at-once action). These are the moves consistent with an ongoing bear and consistently, they do not follow-through; not even the next day...even. Look at the past five or six of these 5%+ beauties - we traded lower the next day and lower-still further out. As I mentioned over the weekend, a slower, more back-and-fill upward bias is apt to indicate a bottoming pattern. This? Well, not so much.

But frankly I'll be surprised if we sell-off tomorrow. There remain too many frothy shorts in the pond and I think the gut-shot (all the way back to last Wednesday's price levels!) may not yet be enough to shake these bears. On top of that, one of the drivers of this bounce is the upcoming hearings on tweaking the mark-to-market accounting rules and that pony show is not until Thursday.

So contrary to my better judgement I'm not going to risk Tripod's nuts again until this M2M meeting is just about underway. The pattern so far remains as thus: The market rallies on an announcement of policy changes or strategy tweak and ultimately turns tail once details (or lack thereof) are defined. I'll push that bet until it pops; tomorrow is a wild-card, but sometime Thursday is perhaps the better (re)entry.

I will short an up-open tomorrow, since I can use the open-price levels for an easy benchmark and simply cover-up if the market is not retreating soon after. But in general I will try to keep relatively market-neutral until the House Financial Services subcommittee hearings begin to define the new-new rules and the market begins to show us the new-new hand.

For all I know we're at the dawn of a new day, stocks have bottomed and Britney Spears is going on sixteen. I'm not a fan of knowing. I prefer reacting.

And like it or not, I've already got a jump-start on shorting an up-open tomorrow. I fired fresh short-shots in the aftermarket during Cramer's latest mouthing. Bank of America was trading ~1.5% higher from the closing price before he muttered something about something about some technical something and I was happy then to short BAC up almost 7%; ave. 4.99 (I keep the Cramer volume very low or off and just look for his pet-stock symbols). Unfortunately he seemed to have struck a chord (not impossible, just ridiculously uncommon), as it is now trading 5.13, or 8.5% above the closing price. This is a quick trade (win or lose), based on the faith that his mouth amounts to more hype when it is open than it does by the next session. The fact that BAC kept right on higher, now more than an hour after the squelch, is concerning; my position size is 5.3% of accounts.

I was heavily long the Russell 2k and even those nasty Financials during the day today, but I let those uglies go before the close and I'm presently flat, following the new BAC short.

I don't have time to explain a great deal during the market, but I have been able to steam-stream my trades via the Tweedfeed >>> Tell a friend...don't do what this guy does.

This was too much of a brag post perhaps; sorry. I know you have but the future on your mind - as you should. But since I cannot spout any great shakes just now on what's the set-up for tomorrow, where the low-hanging dollops of market cream are lying, etc., I guess I just got carried away.

Is Britney really only seventeen?

Total Position: currently 1.03-to-1 net short, (54% invested)

Currently long (according to size): WNR, SNDA, PMCS, HMSY, ARST, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): AAPL, BWA, ALV, BAC, ELOS