Classically Trained, for the Revolution

Showing posts with label vno. Show all posts
Showing posts with label vno. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Rearranging Deck Chairs (short here for now)


Whatever I think about the market just now doesn't mean a great deal and it is subject to change rapidly anyhow. So let's just discuss more how I am positioning and less what the bigger picture paints.

I shifted short in the pre-market again and this time it looks like I will stick with that; for now. Later in the week however is the Good Friday holiday and as such we might see some seasonal strength come in on Thursday. It is possible I will ease back long by Thursday, depending.

I'm having a good session, especially considering that I was considerably net-long when I woke up (I changed that stance abruptly, as yesterday's less than stellar attempt at a reversal was going to be gapped right out of the picture today).

Good luck seeing the same kind of recovery today.

I sold several longs early in the regular session, but I did make one bothersome mistake. I managed a terrific entry long yesterday in the aftermkt on the new ipo CYOU. I mentioned then (via Twittspit) that >22 was really a better buy, but then today I went and sold it at 22.20 early in the session (grabbing the quick profit as I was nervous about my overly-long exposure and was selling things quickly, perhaps abruptly). Since then it has managed to take out the day-1 high and with strong, rising volume. This name hails from a leading group (same group as SNDA and NTES) and one of my favorite trades is to get long an ipo when it takes out the day-1 high (getting above that level demonstrates that buying demand is greater than the profit-taking supply; from those who got in on the ipo price and then are flipping to lock in quick, handsome profits; momentum and demand are greater than anything that can stop it).

If the market is going to manage a standard pause before re-climbing higher again (too soon to say and a bit ambitious perhaps) then CYOU is the type of new leadership I will jam hard with for the remainder of its first several weeks (or until it stops leading).

I bot back the same size of CYOU at 22.92 and am wearing that one still; we'll see what happens.

Total Position: 1.1-to-1 net long, 77% invested
(Note: though the position is slightly net-long, technically it is leaning notably short due to leverage of the 2x's short-hedges TWM and SRS; TWM-weight is >15% at the moment)

Currently Long (according to size): TSYS, ARST, MNRO, NFLX, CHKP, RJI, MYGN, CYOU, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), GE, AAPL, VNO, SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Ice Floed


I slept in today, not getting up until 5:30 Tijuana time; my head was throbbing although I didn't drink a drop last night; my small, net-long position was not going to get any miracles given that Europe was for sale again; my body cleaner since I soaked my head long enough to (hopefully) wash away yesterday's anti-groove; my dog Tripod still happy, even though he has only 3 legs.

It's too bad I'm handcuffed from attacking fresh today, the tape is just ruthless.

Anyway, I've refined rules over the years and I know how to get to the end-game - make sure you cannot self-destruct. The way you do that is to get progressively larger when things are going sublime and get smaller when you suck divine.

I don't kick the dog and I don't kick myself. But I sure as hell don't need to blow-up accounts.

Right now I'm sharpening incisors (I've got 16 of those now) and watching the market as if this was for hobby. I see some amazing things, none of them exactly lovely. I'll pipe in by tonight with some of what I see.

Make some money baby! With or without me.

Total Position: currently 1.08-to-1 net long, (14% invested)
Currenty long (according to size): SNDA (4.3%), IOC (3%)

Currently Short (according to size): AEM (6.6%; going against me today, but I'm not going anywhere on this one just yet)

16 incisors + sharpeners above